Regional Forecasting of Inflow and Generation for Small Hydropower Plants
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The total contribution of the energy generation of the small hydropower (Installed capacity<10 MW) becomes more and more significant in Norway. Indeed, the number of small hydropower plant is increasing since the last decade. Moreover, the energy produced by the small hydropower plants is highly unpredictable and can therefore lead to some planning and operation issues for the transmission system operator of the country which is Statnett. In this study, a model has been developed aiming to forecast the energy generation of small hydropower plants of the NO5 region. The small hydropower plants feeding NO5 have been identified. The theoretical energy generation from small hydropower plants has been computed from runoff data at gauging stations. An appropriate set of gauging stations has been identified for this particular study. Historical runoff data recorded at four gauging stations have been used to compute the theoretical energy generation from a past period (2010-2014). Then, it was compared to the actual energy generation reported by Statnett during the same period. Due to the lack of data concerning the actual energy generation and the characteristics of the plants, the comparison has been carried out for only 25% of the total capacity of the area. However, the method has proved its consistency and relevancy as the match between theoretical and actual energy generations is satisfactory during the period of study. Indeed, the theoretical energy generation computed from historical runoff data reported at gauging stations is similar to the actual energy generation reported. A high correlation (R²=0.97) exists between these two quantities. Therefore, computing the theoretical energy generation from forecasted runoff would lead to forecast the energy generation in NO5. The remaining 75% of the model has been developed based on the same method but without the possibility to prove the reliability of the results with the comparison between actual and theoretical energy generations. More complete data would improve the model. The total theoretical energy generation computed for small hydropower in NO5 by the model in 2014 represents about 6.9% of the total energy output of the region in 2014.The hydrological HBV-model was used in order to forecast the runoff. Six set-ups of the HBV model were made. All the set-ups were calibrated in order to be used for forecasting runoff for these gauging stations. The study finally shows how the model previously developed can be used for operational purposes.