Styring av prosjektporteføljer i staten: Usikkerhetsavsetning på porteføljenivå
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Rapporten beskriver teori og praksis innenfor porteføljestyring i staten. Litteraturstudier og intervjuer supplerer med kunnskap om hvordan porteføljer best kan håndteres og hvordan det i praksis foregår i privat sektor. Samlet utgjør dette en omfattende av prinsipper og praktiske løsninger som kan benyttes til å styrke styringen av prosjektporteføljer i staten. På dette grunnlaget beskriver forfatterne en ny metode for porteføljestyring. Rapporten drøfter og gir råd om en rekke delproblemstillinger som er aktuelle ved implementering av porteføljestyring i staten.This report describes theory and practice concerning portfolio management in the Government. Literature gives background for understanding the issue in the report. A comprehensive experience is gathered through interviews with keypeople in the industry and public sector. The findings are referred in the report. The report discusses a number of issues which complement the main subject of portfolio management. The connection to management of uncertainty in projects and government management in is highlighted. Based on the total picture of management in the state, the authors develop and describe a new method for portfolio management. The report gives directions and points out what is important to include in such a method. Discussion of these issues is included: Basic assumptions, selection of systematic uncertainty, foreign currency, market and price development, accrued reserves, sensitivity analysis, flexibility, unsystematic uncertainty (risks) and management by budgeting and organizing. Sum up of the method includes several important issues. An important notice is that the choice and priority of projects is a very important issue in portfolio management, although it is not a part of the mandate for this project. Division between ongoing and potential, future projects are important. The report also gives advice on reporting. What and how to report to make portfolio management efficient. The analysis included in the method is portfolio assessment, uncertainty analysis of single projects and sensitivity analysis. Conclusions and ideas for further work are found at the end of the report. Together with this report, a few easy to understand spreadsheet models for portfolio management is also developed. A guideline to these models is included as an appendix.