Representation of uncertainty in market models for operational planning and forecasting in renewable power systems: a review

Abstract

As the power system is becoming more weather-dependent and integrated to meet decarbonization targets, the level and severity of uncertainty increase and inevitably introduce higher risk of demand rationing or economic loss. This paper reviews the representation of uncertainty in power market models for operational planning and forecasting. A synthesis of previous reviews is used to find the prevalence of stochastic tools in power and energy system applications, and it concludes that most approaches are deterministic. A selection of power market tools handling uncertainty is reviewed in terms of the uncertain parameters they capture, and the methods used to describe them. These all use probabilistic methods and typically cover weather-related uncertainty, including demand. Random outages are also covered by several short-term power market models, while uncertainty in fuel and CO2 emission prices were generally not found to be included, nor other types of uncertainty. A gap in power market models representing multiple dimensions of uncertainty, solvable on a realistic, large-scale system in a reasonable time, is identified. The paper concludes with a discussion on topics to address when representing uncertainty, where the main challenges are that uncertainty can be difficult to describe and quantify, and including uncertainty adds additional complexity and computational burden to the problem.