Impact of climate change on carbon emissions in future road design: frost protection of roads in temperate climates

Abstract

The aim of this case study was to estimate the impact of future adaptation to climate change with respect to frost on emissions from road construction. Based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) published by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services has predicted statistical frost quantities for the years 2071–2100 in Norway. Carbon emissions in production, loading, transportation, and construction related to the frost protection of roads were estimated based on the predictions and compared with frost protection based on frost quantities for the years 1981–2010. The case study covered two recently constructed four-lane highways in Norway that represent areas with minor and major frost quantities. Three alternative power sources for machinery and transportation were studied: fossil fuel, biofuel, and electricity. These alternatives were combined with two scenarios for climate change (RCPs): one intermediate (RCP4.5) and one business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Based on the combined alternatives and RCPs, the estimated reduction in CO2-equivalents ranged from 22% to 90%.