dc.description.abstract | ABSTRACT
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world economy and health over
the past two years, with low- and middle-income countries experiencing the highest toll.
South Africa is no exception, spending much money on fiscal support during lockdowns,
postpones in treatment of other diseases, lower vaccination rates and increasing debt. The
need of successful and effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is crucial,
with special regards on digital contact tracing technology.
Methods: Time-series analysis of publicly available national data from South Africa, with
special regards on defining pandemic patterns in the country. Using time-series analysis, it is
possible to describe certain variables, explain the relationship between them and control for
how one variable affects another. Our main variables under study are new cases, new deaths,
hospital admissions and reproduction rates. Further, the thesis will develop a model for better
pandemic surveillance in South Africa, while at the same time tracking effectiveness of digital
contact tracing.
Results: The COVID-19 pandemic clearly follows seasonal patterns in South Africa. There
are strong relationships between the variables under study, and the reproduction rate controls
new cases and new deaths over time. Implementing a proper model surveillance, it is possible
for the government to be alert when the pandemic drift out of control. In such case, contact
tracing and other NPIs can be effectively implemented in the country, hindering lockdowns
and new waves of COVID-19 in South Africa. With more control it is possible to focus on
treatment of other diseases, due to more resources and availability in hospitals.
Discussion: Including both negative and positive scenarios of effective contact tracing
surveillance, South Africa can implement effectively contact tracing technology to lower the
total burden on the national healthcare system. The COVID-19 pandemic experience seasonal
spikes forcing the country into lockdowns, and with proper surveillance one can hinder the
largest outbreaks. However, it may be difficult to solely analyze contact tracing on its own
due to the influence of other NPIs and natural behavior towards increase in cases.
Conclusion: Being alert when the COVID-19 pandemic drifts out of control with Cusum
statistics, South Africa can implement necessary measures as effective contact tracing early
during outbreaks, possibly ensuring stabilization in treatments of other diseases in the health
care system, and at the same time allocating resources to other important health arenas. | |