Examination of Economy- and Health Outcomes Related to Unsuccessful Contact Tracing in South Africa, with Possible Guidelines for Future Implementation of such Technologies.
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3008915Utgivelsesdato
2022Metadata
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Sammendrag
ABSTRACTIntroduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world economy and health overthe past two years, with low- and middle-income countries experiencing the highest toll.South Africa is no exception, spending much money on fiscal support during lockdowns,postpones in treatment of other diseases, lower vaccination rates and increasing debt. Theneed of successful and effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is crucial,with special regards on digital contact tracing technology.Methods: Time-series analysis of publicly available national data from South Africa, withspecial regards on defining pandemic patterns in the country. Using time-series analysis, it ispossible to describe certain variables, explain the relationship between them and control forhow one variable affects another. Our main variables under study are new cases, new deaths,hospital admissions and reproduction rates. Further, the thesis will develop a model for betterpandemic surveillance in South Africa, while at the same time tracking effectiveness of digitalcontact tracing.Results: The COVID-19 pandemic clearly follows seasonal patterns in South Africa. Thereare strong relationships between the variables under study, and the reproduction rate controlsnew cases and new deaths over time. Implementing a proper model surveillance, it is possiblefor the government to be alert when the pandemic drift out of control. In such case, contacttracing and other NPIs can be effectively implemented in the country, hindering lockdownsand new waves of COVID-19 in South Africa. With more control it is possible to focus ontreatment of other diseases, due to more resources and availability in hospitals.Discussion: Including both negative and positive scenarios of effective contact tracingsurveillance, South Africa can implement effectively contact tracing technology to lower thetotal burden on the national healthcare system. The COVID-19 pandemic experience seasonalspikes forcing the country into lockdowns, and with proper surveillance one can hinder thelargest outbreaks. However, it may be difficult to solely analyze contact tracing on its owndue to the influence of other NPIs and natural behavior towards increase in cases.Conclusion: Being alert when the COVID-19 pandemic drifts out of control with Cusumstatistics, South Africa can implement necessary measures as effective contact tracing earlyduring outbreaks, possibly ensuring stabilization in treatments of other diseases in the healthcare system, and at the same time allocating resources to other important health arenas.