En modellbasert analyse: Fører 60 minutter fysisk aktivitet per skoledag fra 4. til 7. klasse til at andel barn med overvekt eller fedme reduseres?
Abstract
Background: There has been a massive, global increase of overweight and obesity since
the 1980s, also amongst children. The medical and psychosocial consequences for the
individuals, as well as the considerable socio -economic consequences, render necessary
that action is taken to stagnate this increase, and to prevent further increase. Measures
implemented on a population level are considered suitable for this purpose, and school is
an appropriate place to implement measures .
Purpose: The purpose of this master thesis is to inquire into whether 60 minutes of
physical activity pr. school day for 8 – 12 years old children constitute adequate means in
reducing the increasing overweight and obesity on a population level.
Material & Methods: A simple modelling technique, known as a decisiontree, is
applied. There were made systematical literature searches in order to identify relevant
input to the modelling. The modelling is grounded on an unpublished table of results
from a published study. The modelling is based on a children population amounting to
60 000, and the alteration between the KMI-categories (normal weight, overweight and
obese) is seen in a four -year term, from 4th to 7th grade. The development in weight for
children being exposed to 60 minutes of physical activity every day («measure physical
activity”) was compared to the development in weight for children who were only
exposed to regular physical education. («n ormal development»). As a part of this master
thesis, three hypothesises were put forward on the alteration between the KMI -categories
for the children being exposed to 60 minutes physical activity every school day.
Hypothesis 1 holds a low estimate of effect, hypothesis 2 holds a medium estimate of
effect, and hypothesis 3 holds a high estimate of effect.
Conclusion: More knowledge and studies are needed. However, the results from the
modelling are concurrent that 60 minutes of physical activity each school day is an apt
measure to reduce the overall prevalence in overweight and obesity.
Relevance: Many parties in Norway argue in favour of incorporating 60 minutes of
physical activity every school day. It is therefore expedient to inquire into if such a
measure can be expected to lower the overall prevalence of overweight and obesity in the
child population. This master thesis is mapping existing randomized controlled studies
done in this field, and is applying a modelling technique to estimate the anticipated effect
of the measure. The master thesis is pointing out that more research is needed, but the
modelling shows that 60 minutes of physical activity might serve as an applicable
measure to reduce the overall prevalence in overweight and obesity on a population level.