En modellbasert analyse: Fører 60 minutter fysisk aktivitet per skoledag fra 4. til 7. klasse til at andel barn med overvekt eller fedme reduseres?
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Background: There has been a massive, global increase of overweight and obesity since the 1980s, also amongst children. The medical and psychosocial consequences for the individuals, as well as the considerable socio -economic consequences, render necessary that action is taken to stagnate this increase, and to prevent further increase. Measures implemented on a population level are considered suitable for this purpose, and school is an appropriate place to implement measures . Purpose: The purpose of this master thesis is to inquire into whether 60 minutes of physical activity pr. school day for 8 – 12 years old children constitute adequate means in reducing the increasing overweight and obesity on a population level. Material & Methods: A simple modelling technique, known as a decisiontree, is applied. There were made systematical literature searches in order to identify relevant input to the modelling. The modelling is grounded on an unpublished table of results from a published study. The modelling is based on a children population amounting to 60 000, and the alteration between the KMI-categories (normal weight, overweight and obese) is seen in a four -year term, from 4th to 7th grade. The development in weight for children being exposed to 60 minutes of physical activity every day («measure physical activity”) was compared to the development in weight for children who were only exposed to regular physical education. («n ormal development»). As a part of this master thesis, three hypothesises were put forward on the alteration between the KMI -categories for the children being exposed to 60 minutes physical activity every school day. Hypothesis 1 holds a low estimate of effect, hypothesis 2 holds a medium estimate of effect, and hypothesis 3 holds a high estimate of effect. Conclusion: More knowledge and studies are needed. However, the results from the modelling are concurrent that 60 minutes of physical activity each school day is an apt measure to reduce the overall prevalence in overweight and obesity. Relevance: Many parties in Norway argue in favour of incorporating 60 minutes of physical activity every school day. It is therefore expedient to inquire into if such a measure can be expected to lower the overall prevalence of overweight and obesity in the child population. This master thesis is mapping existing randomized controlled studies done in this field, and is applying a modelling technique to estimate the anticipated effect of the measure. The master thesis is pointing out that more research is needed, but the modelling shows that 60 minutes of physical activity might serve as an applicable measure to reduce the overall prevalence in overweight and obesity on a population level.