Modeling Uncertainty in Extrapolated Extreme Loads for Offshore Wind Turbine Support Structures

Abstract

In this paper we show how a new idea for how to calculate the derivatives of extrapolated 50-year return values, used in extreme load safety criteria, can be used to estimate the uncertainty in these return values resulting from uncertainty in the simulations and in the load extrapolation procedure itself. The method yields uncertainty estimates with a high degree of accuracy. Additionally, to highlight one of the subtler uncertainties involved in this setting, we also make a small study of how changing the block size used in the extraction of maxima from load time series affects the 50-year return value.