Stochastic Modelling and Simulation for Transit Shipping along the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

Because of ice melting in the Arctic areas, there is an increasing interest in the possibilities for transit shipping from Western Europe to Eastern Asia along the Northern Sea Route. However, there is still too much ice along the route to start commercial shipping here. In order to predict when this commercial shipping will be possible, it is necessary to develop models that represent these transits. In this thesis, three models for simulating the ice thickness based on historical data will be presented in detail. Further, the three ice models will be included in a larger model for simulating transit shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Since the output of such models are uncertain today, the main objective of the thesis is to present a few methods to simulate changes in the ice conditions from a mathematical point of view, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these methods.