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How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains

Schulte in den Bäumen, Hagen; Moran, Daniel; Lenzen, Manfred; Cairns, Iver H.; Steenge, Albert E
Journal article, Peer reviewed
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2357866
Date
2014
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  • Institutt for energi og prosessteknikk [2769]
  • Publikasjoner fra CRIStin - NTNU [21936]
Original version
Natural hazards and earth system sciences 2014, 14(10):2749-2759   10.5194/nhess-14-2749-2014
Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to

create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral

oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial

impacts on electrical grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance

on these domestic and international networks increases our

susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a

new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate

the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different

planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts

within the countries directly affected, as well as the

post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by

international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global

economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion

over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would

be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading

to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to

5.6 %. The global economic damage is of the same order as

wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate

change.
Publisher
European Geosciences Union
Journal
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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