How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains
Original version
Natural hazards and earth system sciences 2014, 14(10):2749-2759 10.5194/nhess-14-2749-2014Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to
create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral
oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial
impacts on electrical grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance
on these domestic and international networks increases our
susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a
new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate
the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different
planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts
within the countries directly affected, as well as the
post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by
international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global
economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion
over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would
be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading
to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to
5.6 %. The global economic damage is of the same order as
wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate
change.