Europe's independence from Russian natural gas — Effects of import restrictions on energy system development

Abstract

With the Russian invasion on Ukraine in 2022 and the following disruption of Russian natural gas imports, Europe’s energy reliance on Russia has become more apparent than ever. To tackle the resulting challenges of a limited supply of fossil fuels from Russia and especially its effects on energy system development, short and long-term effects need to be investigated thoroughly. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of reduced natural gas availability from Russia on the European energy system, both in the coming years, as well as in the future. Using the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), three scenarios with varying amounts of Russian natural gas and further impacts of reduced fossil fuel imports from Russia are calculated. Results show that strong effects are mostly observed in the short to medium-term, but an overall earlier phase-out of fossil fuels can be achieved in the long-term. The reduction of natural gas imports is tackled by an increase in LNG imports and domestic natural gas production to overcome the supply gap. Strong reactions are seen in the levelized costs of electricity generation between 2022 and 2025, with higher costs in scenarios with restrictions on Russian natural gas imports, but with a negligible difference in the long-term. Most importantly, lower emissions in scenarios with reduced natural gas supply from Russia highlight the positive effect of an early reduction in fossil fuels and investment in renewable technologies, resulting in a near 100% emission-free energy system by 2045, 5 years before the Base scenario with unrestricted Russian gas imports. The results find that a limitation of Russian fossil imports does not pose a long-term threat to the European energy system or its required transition away from fossil fuels, but can rather accelerate its decarbonization and energy demand reductions.