Impact of Enhanced Spatial Resolution in Energy System Modeling: Investigating the Impact of Bidding Zone Disaggregation and Cost-Effective Grid Expansion in the North Sea

Abstract

Rask handling er nødvendig for a bekjempe effektene av klimaendingene. ˚ A˚ omstille det fossilbaserte energisystemet til et fornybart energibasert system, er avgjørende for a senke utslipp. Den europeiske unionen har satt et m ˚ al for medlem- ˚ slandene sine om a redusere klimagassutslippene med 55% sammenlignet med ˚ nivaene fra 1990 innen 2030[1]. For ˚ a oppn ˚ a dette trenger de mange nye og forny- ˚ bare energikilder, slik som 60 GW planlagt offshore vindkraft i Nordsjøen. Norge pa sin side har som m ˚ al˚ a tildele omr ˚ ader med en samlet kapasitet p ˚ a 30 GW off- ˚ shore vindkraft innen 2040[2]. Energisystem modellering kan bli benyttet for a utforske utfall av lav-utslipp energi ˚ system scenarioer. I denne masteroppgaven ble det opprettet fem ulike scenarier for energisystemmodellen GENeSYS-MOD. Disse er basert pa gradual develop- ˚ ment openENTRANCE-scenariet: en base case, Danmark disaggregert, offshoresone til NO2, offshore-sone koblet til NO2 og DK1, offshore-sone koblet til NO2, DK1 og UK. Disse scenariene ble utforsket for a besvare de følgende forskn- ˚ ingsspørsmalene: ˚ Forskningsspørsmal 1: ˚ Om a disaggregere Danmark har en signifikant be- ˚ tydning pa energisystemet eller om det er neglisjerbart? ˚ Forskningsspørsmal 2: ˚ Hva er den mest kostnadseffektive strategien for nettutvidelse fra det norske offshore vindomradet til nabolandene rundt Nordsjøen? ˚ Resultatene angaende forskningsspørsm ˚ al 1 understreket betydningen av op- ˚ pdeling, da det avdekket en flaskehals i det danske energisystemet som resulterte i en 25% forskjell i installert kapasitet mellom de to scenarioene. Den oppdelte scenarien hadde den laveste totale kapasiteten. Resultatene angaende forskningsspørsm ˚ al 2 viste en tydelig trend som favoris- ˚ erte en sammenkoblet struktur for strømnett i Nordsjøen. Strategien for nettutvidelse, som involverte tilkobling til NO2, DK1 og UK, resulterte i den mest kostnadseffektive løsningen og førte til den mest betydelige kapasitetsutvidelsen av offshore vind i Nordsjøen.

Urgent actions are needed in order to combat the effects of climate change. Transforming the fossil-based energy system over to a renewable energy source-based system is integral to lowering emissions. The European Union has set a target for their member countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels by the year 2030 [1]. To achieve this they need a lot of new and renewable energy sources, like the planned 60 GW offshore wind power in the North Sea. Norway on their part aims to allocate areas with a combined offshore wind capacity of 30 GW by 2040 [2]. Energy system models can be utilized in order to explore the outcomes of lowcarbon energy system scenarios. In this thesis, five different scenarios were created for the open-source energy system model, GENeSYS-MOD. These were all based on the gradual development openENTRANCE scenario. A base case, Denmark disaggregated, offshore node connected to NO2, offshore node connected to NO2 and DK1, offshore node connected to NO2, DK1, and UK. These scenarios were studied in order to answer the following research questions: Research question 1: To investigate whether the disaggregation of Denmark into bidding zones has a meaningful impact on the energy system or if it is negligible. Research question 2: What is the cost-effective grid expansion strategy from the Norwegian offshore wind area to the neighboring countries around the North Sea? Results regarding research question 1 highlighted the significance of disaggregation, as it uncovered a bottleneck in the Danish energy system, resulting in a 21.9% difference in installed capacities in Denmark between the two scenarios. The disaggregated scenario had the least total capacity of 63.2 GW in 2050. Results regarding research question 2 showed a clear trend that favored a meshed grid structure in the North Sea. The grid expansion, which connected to NO2, DK1, and UK, resulted in the most cost-effective solution and produced the most significant capacity expansion of offshore wind in the North Sea.