Modelling Biodiversity Impacts of future Energy Systems in Norway

Abstract

Global renewable energy production must triple by 2030 to mitigate global warming. This requires a considerable expansion of global energy facilities and electric grids. Norway is well-positioned for this energy transition, with 98% of its electricity generated from renewable sources like hydropower and wind. Its climate plan aims to cut emissions by half by 2030 through electrification and increased electricity production. However, while the Norwegian government is responsible for fulfilling its climate goals, it is also committed to protecting nature. The development of hydropower and wind farms can disturb wildlife and pose risks to biodiversity through habitat loss and fragmentation, while turbines can cause species mortality. Moreover, power line construction alters and fragments habitats and endangers bird populations through collision and electrocution. Life cycle assessment is a valuable instrument for assessing the trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation. While existing life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models cover biodiversity impacts related to electricity production, a gap exists in addressing impacts associated with electricity transmission. This PhD thesis has two goals: (1) developing biodiversity LCIA models to quantify the impacts of power lines on Norwegian species richness, and (2) integrating existing models to analyse the biodiversity impacts of the Norwegian electricity system, including generation and transmission. Chapter 2 introduces LCIA models that assess the impacts of power lines on bird richness due to collision and electrocution. In Chapter 3, existing LCIA models are adapted to quantify the effects of power lines on bird and mammal richness in Norway from habitat conversion and fragmentation. Overall, distribution lines had a greater impact on species richness, primarily affecting mammal diversity through habitat conversion and fragmentation, while bird richness is more influenced by collisions than electrocutions. Chapter 4 demonstrates the potential global application of these models, using global datasets to assess habitat loss impacts on bird and mammal diversity worldwide. Finally, Chapter 5 merges the newly developed biodiversity LCIA models with existing ones to comprehensively evaluate the current effects of the Norwegian electricity system on species richness. While hydropower electricity production emerged as the primary contributor to biodiversity impacts, the electric grid also significantly affects species richness. As the energy transition unfolds, critical decisions must balance climate mitigation with preserving nature. The methodology outlined in this thesis offers an assessment approach towards a sustainable, environmentally friendly energy shift. It aims to ensure that the progress towards climate goals does not come at the expense of natural ecosystems.