Unraveling the role of biofuels in road transport under rapid electrification

Abstract

Biofuels have been the predominant option for climate change mitigation in road transport for decades, but the recent expansion of electric vehicles may bring into question their key role. In this work we model the energy use and life-cycle emissions of road transport activities until 2050 in Norway, a country with a rapid growth in vehicle fleet electrification, to investigate the role that biofuels can play in climate change mitigation, and assess the implications for air pollution and human health. The mitigation benefits from biofuels peak around 2030 at 3.1 ± 0.45 MtCO2eq. year−1, approximately 30% of today's road transport emissions. The largest specific emission savings are achieved from biofuels in trucks and vans, for which the penetration of electric vehicles is slower. These results are consistent under different time horizons and climate metrics. The average impacts on human health are also decreased, but the uncertainty ranges for some biofuels options overlap with those of fossil fuels. Complementary and integrated strategies combining high electrification rates of the vehicle fleet with targeted applications of biofuels can increase the mitigation of road transport emissions. © 2022 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.