| dc.description.abstract | Through initiatives like The Paris agreement (COP21) and the European Green Deal, an energy transition is underway globally. This transition will transform energy generation, distribution, storage and consumption. So even though hydrogen does not account for much consumption today, it might tomorrow. Recent energy modelling reports conclude that hydrogen is needed in large quantities to reach a decarbonised energy system [\parencite{iea_roadmap},\parencite{IRENA_trade}].
Currently, hydrogen from renewable energy sources (RES) is experiencing unprecedented global momentum, and the current interest is different than before both in the breadth of possibilities discussed, and the depth of political enthusiasm for them \parencite{IEA}. In other words, the understanding of hydrogen's potential role in this new energy system as a flexible complement to electricity is increasing. Nothing is certain about hydrogen's prospective role yet though, deployment challenges remain significant and the level of today's investment is modest compared to the potential scale of the system. This thesis aims to investigate a possible future role of hydrogen through modelling potential trade in 2050.
To investigate the future global trade of hydrogen from renewable sources, this thesis builds an extensive model combining regional hydrogen supply curves based on geospatial datasets for solar and wind observations, with current assumptions regarding technology costs, transportation costs and future demand scenarios. Several scenarios with different supply costs, transportation costs and demand are run to receive a general understanding of the dynamics of the results. The goal of the model is to evaluate optimal expansion strategies to exploit regional generation advantages. This is done to enhance the current understanding of hydrogen trade from renewable sources, alongside exploring the potential competition between regions. The model will also be compared to results from similar work. This is done to place the presented results in context and to gain a deeper understanding of how model assumptions impact the findings regarding the future role of hydrogen from renewable sources.
The background of the thesis will first be presented, focusing on the potential usage of hydrogen, the benefits and main technologies involved and the current outlook of the potential market. Following, will the specific methods, external data-sets, calculations and assumptions made in the thesis be introduced. Then the results will be showcased by going through the base scenario, and thereafter the scenarios with alternated parameters. Finally, will a discussion on the findings in this thesis compared to other research papers be presented. | |