Scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid

Abstract

A robust strategy is needed for a cost-efficient transition to the future flexible and intelligent grid. For this purpose, it is necessary to make presumptions about the future and which aspects to be considered. This paper describes four scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid, which are made up in a foresight process. The scenarios are built in a two-dimensional system of coordinates, where the horizontal axis describes the grid customers (consumers, power producers and prosumers) and to which degree they contribute with flexibility in the grid. The vertical axis describes the degree of digitalisation and automation of the grid. The scenarios span different futures in a Norwegian context, making it possible to manage the risks and prepare for an uncertain future by making robust transition strategies.