The Early Warning Procedure in Projects Foundations, Approaches and Challenges

Abstract

Despite the application of project management tools and techniques in projects worldwide, still a large number of projects fail to meet their objectives. Based on studies on the history of failed projects, it is obvious that projects do not result in failure overnight. With hindsight, project managers are often able to point out the most likely factors leading to project failure. One approach towards prevention of project failure or deviation from the main goal is to attempt to detect possible signs of project failure in early stages of projects. These signs are referred to in the literature as Early Warning (EW) signs. The major challenge for the project managers is the identification of these signs and attempting to respond to them in order to prevent the negative circumstances. Although it is not a proven fact that identification of EW signals is a guarantee against project failure, there are a number of resources which consider paying attention to these signals and attempt to respond to them as a contribution to project success. This PhD dissertation provides better understanding of the EW phenomenon, possible approaches for identifying EW signs and barriers against effective responses to these signs in projects. In addition to contributing to existing project management research by increasing the understanding of the application of EW procedure in projects, the present research attempts to contribute to development of more effective approaches towards responding to EW signs of potential future problems in projects. Three research questions (RQs) guide the research: - RQ1: How are early warning detection approaches addressed in the existing literature? - RQ2: How can the utilization of early warning identification approaches improve project performance in practice? - RQ3: What are the possible barriers against effectively responding to early warning signs and how to enhance early responses to EW signs in projects? The research questions are addressed through seven corresponding publications, based on extant literature review within the EW field and other relevant areas, alongside four different case studies among various industries (Oil and gas, Telecommunication, Transportation and R&D) and a survey among Norwegian project managers or leaders in different industries. The main focus points in the seven individual publications which comprise the dissertation include: - Publication I: Investigation on possible EW identification approaches and their strengths and weaknesses - Publication II: Presentation of a conceptual framework for application of performance measurement as an EW identification approach (An analysis on the case of London Ambulance Service (LAS) project) - Publication III: Investigation on application of performance measurement as an EW system ( A case study on the Tyrihans project within the oil and gas industry) - Publication IV: Investigation on application of Project Health Check (PHC) as an EW system ( A case study on LTE and MOVE projects within the telecommunication industry) - Publication V: Investigation on how identification of EW signs in early stages of projects can aid project managers towards better decision making ( A case study on the Norwegian High Speed Railway (HSR) project within the transportation industry) - Publication VI: Investigation on behaviour of different filters against effective flow of information in international projects - Publication VII: Investigation on possible barriers against identifying and responding to EW signs and remedies for improving the EW procedure. A model is developed based on the findings from the individual publications and the initial literature studies, which illustrates a detailed EW procedure. The initial idea for development of the model stems from Nikander‘s (2002) decision support model and the findings from each publication contribute to clarification of different stages of the model. The main stages within the procedure include: - Observations in order to detect possible EW signs of potential future problems - Evaluation of the information gathered via application of methods and the information perceived through gut feelings - Transfer of information to the decision maker - Evaluation of the information received from the observer and making decisions on what to accept or what to discard due to being unnecessary or irrelevant - Evaluation of information regarding accepted elements as EW signs and deciding which one is allowed to influence the decision making process - Making the final decision on what actions to be taken towards the identified EW signs - Taking the actions in order to avoid actualization of potential problems The figure below illustrates the main stages of the EW procedure alongside the filters throughout the procedure. The findings of this dissertation clarify the process through which the information on a possible EW sign should undergo in order for the suitable response to be taken before the potential problem actualizes. It also indicates that an effective response requires the flow of information through each and every filter throughout the procedure and discusses the influencing factors on the strength of these filters. Based on the effects of each of the factors on the filters, this dissertation deliberates on possible approaches for improvements in order to lessen the negative affect of these aspects on the effectiveness of responses to EW signs. The suggested remedies are categorized into three main groups which offer suggestions for improvement of the EW identification stage, information transfer stage and the response stage. The results of the studies which led to the development of this dissertation contribute to both theory and practice. The theoretical contributions aim to bridge three main identified research gaps including: Limited research on possible EW identification approaches within the project management area, limited understanding and elaboration on application of EW identification approaches and limited understanding of possible barriers against effective responses to EW signs and potential approaches for enhancing the response process. These contributions reside in the clarification of the full extent of EW identification approaches, evaluation of the level of efficiency of performance measurement and PHC as EW systems, introducing new insights to adding the EW procedure as part of the management system in early stages of projects, clarifying the behavior of the filters against flow of information in international contexts , clarification of possible barriers against effective responses to EW signs and suggestions for improvement of the procedure. The Practical contributions of the dissertation reside in facilitating potential increased managers’ understanding of strengths and weaknesses of possible EW identification approaches, enhancing manager’s capabilities to identify EW signs through application of different EW identification approaches, highlighting the importance of having an open eye on possible EW signs of potential future problems from the early stages of projects , highlighting the challenges involved with carrying out an effective EW procedure in practice and suggesting remedies for overcoming these challenges. In conclusion, this dissertation contributes to advancing theory and applications by providing insights into the utilization of an EW procedure in projects, the challenges involved within this procedure and suggestions for overcoming them. Further research in a range of contexts is, however, necessary for testing and enhancing the utility of the approaches and the remedies.