| dc.description.abstract | Aluminium use in the passenger car sector is on the rise, for reasons related mainly to lightweighting of vehicles, leading to both increasing aluminium demand and scrap production. The automotive sector functions as an aluminium sink for scrap produced across several industries, but there are concerns that the secondary castings demand might not be growing at a pace sufficient to maintain this role, thus potentially leading to a scrap surplus in coming years. The mobility trends which will develop over the next three decades, among which electrification stands out, will impact the aluminium cycle within the passenger car industry. A dynamic MFA approach has been used to analyse current and future trends within the global passenger car system and their effect on its aluminium content.
All the scenarios analysed have in common a declining share of secondary castings going into the system, coupled with an increased scrap production, thus supporting the hypothesis that a scrap surplus might indeed occur. A solution needs to be found, capable of maximising secondary castings demand while limiting scrap production; however, for that to happen, a technological breakthrough needs to happen. In the meantime, compromises need to be made in order to mitigate the problem. | |