Assessment of risk tolerance for future autonomous offshore installations

Abstract

The future normally unmanned production concepts for offshore petroleum installations in the North Sea and associated waters are briefly outlined. A case study is summarised for a fictitious normally unmanned facility, and risk results are presented for three different cases with varying extents of safety systems. The case study results are discussed with respect to the risk levels for personnel for the three cases. Risk tolerance criteria are discussed in general and for unmanned production installations in particular. Also risk reducing evaluations are discussed briefly, in general as well as for unmanned production concepts. Individual and societal risk are discussed, together with some regulatory challenges from the risk management point of view for normally unmanned installations. There are no applicable risk tolerance criteria for unmanned facilities, and the criteria for manned facilities are not suitable. There is a strong need for the authorities to focus on the use of risk tolerance criteria for manned as well as unmanned facilities.