Exploring the determinants of success in different clusters of ball possession sequences in soccer

Abstract

The purpose of this study was two-step: (1) classify ball possession (BP) according to the duration and number of passes and (2) identify which tactical variables most discriminate the different BP. We obtained 527 BPs from four official matches of the Brazilian Soccer Championship 2016. Forty-one “notational”, “space occupation”, and “displacement synchronization” predictor variables were used. The BPs were classified into three groups: short (11.07 ± 4.49 s, 1.93 ± 0.99 passes), medium (26.83 ± 7.33 s, 5.41 ± 1.84 passes), long (55.50 ± 14.97 s, 12.11 ± 4.61 passes). Discriminant analysis identified the five most relevant variables to describe each group: coefficient of variation (CV) of the defensive team’s synchronization-Y, CV defensive team´s synchronization-X, successful pass last third, CV distance between offensive team’s centroid and target, mean of the offensive team’s width. The approach highlights important variables and could benefit the description of offensive and defensive game sequences to provide precise knowledge on the process.