Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation - results from a foresight process

Abstract

The future electricity grid will be a complex system-ofsystems, incorporating various intelligent devices for monitoring, control and automation. The interaction between various technological, regulatory and social factors add complexity which need to be addressed in a holistic and coordinated way to support the system innovation. To better understand the complexity, the driving forces for system innovation have been identified and structured, for the Norwegian distribution grid. Based on the driving forces, a repository of 109 mini scenarios has been developed. This paper describes the foresight process, the structure of the driving forces and shows examples of mini scenarios and their impact on the future development of the distribution grid. Further it gives some insight into how the DSOs can prepare for the uncertain future by utilising the knowledge gained from this work