Secure Electricity Supply in a Single European Market in 2030

Abstract

The purpose of this master thesis study is to investigate how electricity can be securely supplied in the European Union in 2030. Fitting the identified future state of the electricity supply system in the European Union energy service providing companies are guided on how to adapt their strategies. In the first part is the current supply chain of electricity in the European Union modeled, based on literature and a stakeholder analysis, following the control model methodology. Then are challenges to the current system systematically analyzed and displayed in their cause-effect relationships using the DPSIR approach. Adjustments to the current system towards secure supply in a single European market in 2030 are identified by analyzing adjustment suggestions by 15 scientific research project reports. The reports result in scenarios of the future electricity supply system in the European Union in 2030. The reports adjustment suggestions are then combined and validated by use of the Delphi method by interviewing four experts in the field. The adjusted electricity supply chain for Europe is modeled hereafter. Finally, a guideline for energy service providing companies is derived. This enables energy service providing companies to adapt their long-term strategy to make use of the business opportunity emerging from the necessary transition of the electricity supply system from its current state to the adjusted version for 2030. In conclusion two models were drawn, one of the current state of electricity supply in the European Union and one of an adjusted version that securely supplies the European Union in 2030. The adjusted supply chain has a share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix right below 50%. Electricity customers are expected to invest in small-scale renewable electricity generation facilities at their premises. That makes customers to prosumers, active managers of their supply and consumption, using demand side management. The electricity grid is expanded and storage is added at all levels of the electricity supply chain to flexibly handle variation in renewable energy sources supply variability. Based on the adjustments a two-part strategy-making guideline was derived for energy service providing companies.