Monte Carlo Simulation of Power Systems with Wind Power
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- Institutt for elkraftteknikk 
The integration of wind power in Europe is steadily increasing, with more than 106 000 MW installed in the European Union at the end of 2012. At the same time, Norway had installed 703 MW, but through the recently established joint electricity certificate market with Sweden, the ambitions are to increase the annual generation from renewable energy significantly. One of the regions with large plans for wind power is Mid-Norway, and in order to realize a large part of the planned 1 900 MW of wind power along the coast, several projects for new and upgraded transmission lines have been initiated in the region.The impact from wind power on the power system is significantly different from conventional energy sources, and because of its intermittent nature there is an overwhelming amount of possible input combinations for power system simulations. A simulation program has therefore been developed during the work with this thesis, to run a large number of simulations of a power system with random input, a concept better known as Monte Carlo simulation.The ambition has been to create a program that, together with a conversion script for PSS®E-files, can serve as a complement to traditional power system analysis methods with PSS®E, for assessment of short-term uncertainty of wind power with focus on its impact on the power system. The simulation program is developed around the open-source power system simulation package Matpower, which is run in MATLAB®. Different modules are implemented for simulation of variable wind power, variable load, distributed slack and randomly disconnected branches, and a range of tools have been integrated for analysis of the results.The utility of the resulting program has been demonstrated with a simplified model of the Mid-Norway power system in several cases with different wind power and grid configurations. The results support the need for a strengthened grid in order to facilitate large amounts of wind power along the coast. If not done, bottlenecks are likely to arise together with significantly increased losses, in addition to a considerable risk for wind farm owners of lost production due to disconnections by TSO for system protection.The results show that the program returns meaningful results in accordance with the expectations, and has a potential for further development and testing with real cases. However, the model used for case studies is based on unknown presumptions, and the results serve mainly as a demonstration and verification of the developed program s functionality.