Ship Design under Uncertainty

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to develop knowledge to design better ships. More specifically, it concerns the development and application of effective methods and models for handling future contextual uncertainty in the early design stages. Furthermore, it investigates whether changeability in design can improve profitability by reducing risks and enabling upside opportunities. Changeability is the ability of a system to change form, function, or operation, and is a collective term for change-related system properties such as flexibility, adaptability, and agility.

The work is motivated by three general characteristics of the maritime industry: high market uncertainty, capital-intensive projects, and long project time horizons. The thesis uses the design of an offshore construction vessel as a primary case.

The thesis systematically addresses four research objectives (RO):

1.Develop models that effectively capture relevant aspects of the future uncertain operating context.

2.Define and quantify the level of changeability for a system.

3.Develop an understanding of technical tradeoffs for the realization of changeable ship design solutions.

4.Develop models to evaluate changeability in design – operationalizing the link between uncertainty, design variables, and operational strategies.

The thesis supplements four main articles attached, and five supporting papers. The three contributions (C) of the research project are:

1.A framework for describing and quantifying changeable design alternatives, applicable to ship design as well as engineering design in general.

2.An assessment of the applicability of methods and models for handling uncertainty in ship design, primarily from the real options and systems engineering domains.

3.An identification of potentially valuable changeable ship design solutions, specifically being “prepared for retrofits” for two cases: fuel flexibility for transport ships and mission flexibility for non-transport vessels.