| dc.description.abstract | Climate scientists have developed and refined climate change models on a global scale. One of the aims of these models is to predict the effects of human activities on climate, and thus the delivery of information that is useful to devise mitigation actions. Moreover, if they can be properly downscaled to a regional and local level, they might be useful to deliver support for adaptation actions. For example, they may be used as an input for the better design of the features of buildings in order to make them resilient to climate modification, e.g., able to passively control heat flows to produce comfortable indoor conditions not only in the present climate, but also in future climate conditions. Taking into account the future weather scenarios that show an increase in the global temperature and climate severity, a likely consequence on building energy use will be a substantial shift from space heating to space cooling, and potentially uncomfortable thermal conditions during the summer will became a major challenge, both for new and existing buildings. In this paper, a deep energy retrofit of a child care centre located in Milan (Italy) is analysed on the basis of future weather scenarios; the analysis aims to identify to what extent choices that are made nowadays on the basis of a typical meteorological year may succeed to provide acceptable energy and indoor environmental performance throughout the future decades. The analysis confirms that climate change might require the installation of active cooling systems to compensate for harsher summer conditions over a long-term horizon, however, in the mid-term, passive cooling strategies combined with envelope refurbishment may still guarantee thermally comfortable conditions, and they will reduce energy cooling needs when active cooling is eventually installed. | nb_NO |
