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dc.contributor.authorVisser, Marcel E.
dc.contributor.authorGienapp, Phillip
dc.contributor.authorHusby, Arild
dc.contributor.authorMorrisey, Michael
dc.contributor.authorde la Hera, Ivan
dc.contributor.authorPulido, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorBoth, Christiaan
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-02T12:15:34Z
dc.date.available2018-01-02T12:15:34Z
dc.date.created2015-07-03T08:46:06Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.citationPLoS biology. 2015, 13 (4), .nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn1544-9173
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2474029
dc.description.abstractClimate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980–2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001–2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherPublic Library of Sciencenb_NO
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleEffects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Birdnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionnb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber17nb_NO
dc.source.volume13nb_NO
dc.source.journalPLoS biologynb_NO
dc.source.issue4nb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pbio.1002120
dc.identifier.cristin1252275
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 214553nb_NO
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 223257nb_NO
dc.description.localcodeCopyright: © 2015 Visser et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.nb_NO
cristin.unitcode194,66,10,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for biologi
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


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