Norwegian Energy Scenarios
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- Institutt for elkraftteknikk 
The penetration of renewable energy sources is increasing in the European power system. Their interaction with the power market is fundamentally different from that of traditional thermal power production. This thesis aims to highlight the consequences this development has for the Nordic power system. The consequences studied are mainly related to power flows, power prices and storage handling.To fulfil the research objective, a new EMPS dataset has been created. The dataset uses the overall data and consistency from ENTSO-E TYNDP Vision 4 2016, but applies a different areal resolution than that of TYNDP Visions. The dataset uses the same areas as used in the current power trade of Nord Pool Spot, for Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland. This way, the dataset can better answer questions regarding consequences for the Nordic power system.Two datasets have been simulated with the EMPS model. One using data from Vision 4 2016, V4-16, and one where the installed capacity of solar and wind power has been doubled, DoubleRES.The share of production from RES is 39 % in V4-16, a number which increases to 69 % in DoubleRES. The consequence of this increase includes a 49 % reduction in total net load, while the peak net load is reduced with 3 %. Where net load is defined as demand minus production solar, wind and run-of-the-river hydro power. An estimate for an upper limit for feasible battery storage capacity has been found to be 0.5 GWh/TWh/year. This would reduce the peak net load with 20 % in V4-16 and 30 % in DoubleRES.Norway has an average power deficit of 22 TWh in V4-16, hence the Nordic average prices are no longer among the lowest in Europe. The storage from summer to winter is on average reduced by 11 TWh in the Nordic areas from V4-16 to DoubleRES. A result of the increased use of Nordic reservoirs for year to year storage. Mostly to withstand year to year variations of neighbouring areas. This leads to larger seasonal average power price difference in the Nordics in DoubleRES than V4-16, increasing the economic benefit of reservoirs and storage units. The Nordic areas have been found to push low summer prices to its neighbouring areas, driven by the risk of spillage and coherent low water values. The Nordic areas does however absorb daily price differences from its neighbours. So much so that the lowest average price of the day is at noon, and the highest average price of the day is in the evening, even in the Nordics.