Dynamic modeling of future building related C&D waste in Norway
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The EU Waste Framework Directive, which Norway through the EEA-agreement is obliged to follow, requires that by 2020 a minimum of 70% (by weight) of non-hazardous construction and demolition waste (CDW) shall be prepared for re-use, recycled or undergo other material recovery (including backfilling operations, using waste to substitute other materials). To evaluate where Norway is in relation to this requirement in 2020 and up till 2100, the focus in this thesis has been to perform a stock dynamic modeling of the future building related CDW in Norway. The dynamics in the system (the building stock) are of major importance when performing such projection. There are flows of materials into the building stock due to construction and renovation activities, and there are corresponding outflows due to construction, renovation and demolition activities. The inflows to the construction phase are driven by the demand for useful floor area per capita (UFApC) in the residential and non-residential building stock and the materials needed to fulfill this demand. The renovation rate is driving the inflow of material to the use phase (renovation activity) and the corresponding outflow of waste. The lifetime of the buildings drives the outflows from the systems, which again affects the inflow since there is a given demand for useful floor area that has to be fulfilled at each time. Waste from the demolition phase will be estimated on the basis of the building stock that has reached the end of its lifetime and the materials in that part of the building stock. Since waste is also generated during the construction and renovation phase, waste generation factors for these activities are used.The results in the modeling are possible scenarios of the development of building related CDW until 2100. It showed increased waste amounts in the future, as much as 250 % higher in 2100 than in 2013. The demolition waste will constitute a larger share of the total building related CDW than today due to aging building stock. Brick and Concrete (B&C) will be an even more dominating fraction in the future than today. By using the current recycling rates it will, because of the increase in B&C, be possible (according to the model) to reach the EU Waste Framework Directive already in 2020. The total material recovery will increase as the years go by due to the larger share of demolition waste. However, the modeling shows somewhat higher amounts of B&C than in the statistical information. It will therefore be important to increase the material recovery rates as much possible for all fractions. It will be especially important to increase the rate for B&C since it is the dominating fraction and the authorities should promote this. The requirement of waste sorted out should also be increased, so as to reduce the mixed waste, which probably will be higher in reality than in the model.