A multi-country panel study of behaviour, perceptions and expectations during different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

It is widely accepted that the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed travel patterns since 2020, largely due to restrictions on people’s movement and work-fromhome practices. A large number of studies have been conducted to understand such changes from a trip maker’s perspective, using different types of mobility data collected across the world. This study uses survey panel data on travel behaviour and activity participation collected between May 2020 and November 2020 in the United Kingdom, Australia, Colombia and South Africa using a consistent survey approach. We identify a role for three key underlying latent constructs, namely 1) concerns about COVID-19, 2) approval of government interventions and 3) scepticism towards COVID-19 measures. Using a hybrid choice model, we study the role of these constructs in explaining stated travel choices in two hypothetical post-pandemic scenarios. The model results show significantly different perceptions towards COVID-19 concerns and government handling of the COVID-19 pandemic (including restrictions) across countries. The model estimates show a clear influence for the latent constructs in explaining stated behaviour in the hypothetical post-pandemic scenarios across the four countries, where this is also impacted by lockdown stringency levels as well as socio-demographics.