Investigation of punctuality of local trains - the case of Oslo area

Abstract

Norwegian railways experienced a steady decline in punctuality during the period 2007-2010. This paper briefly discusses the concept of train punctuality, influencing factors on punctuality, and investigates relationship between punctuality and weather factors on Norwegian railways by analysing data for the period 2007-2010. This study is particularly interested in data from the Oslo area, namely the section between Drammen and Eidsvoll, a stretch that has many travellers and affects all the train companies involved in the study. The analyses are based on data concerning punctuality and potential weather factors that are likely to influence punctuality. Data are studied on a weekly basis, and correlation and regression analyses are carried out. The results show that the influence of a harsh winter with extreme cold days on punctuality is strong and their correlation is statistically significant. The contribution of this paper lies within research on the empirical study of delay causes in the railway industry.