Russland, og utfordringer ved dagens verdensorden : er Russland i vekst eller fall?

Abstract

This study examines the effects of Russia´s military expenditures on the country´s consumption and investments. The classic Guns or Butter notion, in light of Paul Kennedy´s argument. The study discusses observations of Russia in both rise and fall, and findings show the country in severe decay. Putin´s regime is immensely corrupt, and the military modernisation is overstreching the economy, fully dependent on high oil prices. Russia´s GDP is in decline, due to the decreasing oil prices, low production and export of oil and gas, and to serious economic sanctions from the West after the annexation of Crimea. Dispite this, the military expenditures are rising, and the military activity is increasing. There is a severe disparity between Russia´s increasing military activity and the country´s resource bases. Findings also show that Russia is a growing threat to both NATO and the West, as well as to countries in the Russian periphery. This can be a result of lag time between the military modernisation and the declining economy, as a shadow play for the regime to hide behind Putin´s rhetoric grand strategy. The regime no longer hesitates to use military power to achieve its goals or to secure itself. The conflict with Ukraine and the war in Syria prey on the Russian economy, and the Great Power ambitions is lacking sustainability - leaving Russia in fall.