• Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa 

      Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A; Sjaastad, Espen Olav; Theisen, Ole Magnus (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2015)
      Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism ...
    • Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways 

      Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Gilmore, Elisabeth (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016)
      Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic ...
    • Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: a machine learning approach 

      Hoch, Jannis M.; de Bruin, Sophie P; Buhaug, Halvard; von Uexkull, Nina; van Beek, Rens; Wanders, Niko (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      In the past decade, several efforts have been made to project armed conflict risk into the future. This study broadens current approaches by presenting a first-of-its-kind application of machine learning (ML) methods to ...