One-year employment outcome prediction after traumatic brain injury: A CENTER-TBI study

Abstract

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can come with long term consequences for functional outcome that can complicate return to work. Objectives This study aims to make accurate patient-specific predictions on one-year return to work after TBI using machine learning algorithms. Within this process, specific research questions were defined: 1 How can we make accurate predictions on employment outcome, and does this require follow-up data beyond hospitalization? 2 Which predictors are required to make accurate predictions? 3 Are predictions accurate enough for use in clinical practice? Methods This study used the core CENTER-TBI observational cohort dataset, collected across 18 European countries between 2014 and 2017. Hospitalized patients with sufficient follow-up data were selected for the current analysis (N = 586). Data regarding hospital stay and follow-up until three months post-injury were used to predict return to work after one year. Three distinct algorithms were used to predict employment outcomes: elastic net logistic regression, random forest and gradient boosting. Finally, a reduced model and corresponding ROC-curve was created. Results Full models without follow-up achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of about 81 %, which increased up to 88 % with follow-up data. A reduced model with five predictors achieved similar results with an AUC of 90 %.