Techno-Economic and Environmental Footprint Assessments of Lithium-Ion Batteries from a Process-Base Modeling Perspective

Abstract

Climate change has caused substantial changes over the 20th century, leading to global warming and a rise in the Earth's average temperature. Primarily attributed to human activities, the accumulation of key greenhouse gases and emissions from fossil fuel combustion has driven this phenomenon. Recognizing the significant threat posed by this phenomenon, adopting vital strategies and technologies for shifting from fossil fuels to achieve decarbonization in energy supply chains and meeting net-zero objectives, commonly referred to as the energy transition, is imperative. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), electrification, energy efficiency, and renewables are the key technological pathways for reducing emissions, with a share of 70 % in the total mitigation outlook by 2050.

Energy storage systems (ESS) are, in general, pivotal enablers in the energy transition because they offer solutions for the grid's inherent intermittency and ensure reliability and stability. In recent years, lithium-ion battery storage technologies have emerged as central players in driving toward net zero since their versatility extends beyond grid applications, including consumer portable products (electronics), transport fleets, and stationary (residential, utility). This point is backed by the remarkable 90% cost reductions since 2010, one of the fastest cost declines of any energy technology ever, coupled with higher energy densities and longer cycle times.

Despite ongoing improvements in various aspects of lithium-ion batteries, further enhancements are necessary to address challenges, particularly in cost, environmental footprint, and production energy. This underscores the need for a systematic and comprehensive approach to simultaneously monitor and incorporate different aspects, ensuring a holistic and high-resolution investigation. Thus, this thesis adopts an in-depth, bottom-up modeling technique to alleviate the challenges in the areas mentioned above. It provides a flexible framework that integrates the physical, chemical, and electrochemical characteristics of various materials to design state-of-the-art battery cells for diverse applications. Once the battery cell design is finalized, it progresses to the production phase, where specific production steps are allocated to achieve the desired battery cell. Additionally, the model allows control over the operational parameters for each step within the production process. A critical outcome of this model is the detailed investigation of material and energy flows during the production phase. Moreover, a comprehensive cost analysis is conducted to estimate the production costs. The framework also extends its flexibility to assess the environmental impacts of the designed battery cells, considering not only the production phase but also the upstream processes, such as the mining of materials essential for production. In summary, the framework incorporates the mining and production phases for state-of-the-art Li-ion battery cells.

In addition to the capabilities mentioned above, the developed frameworks are used to investigate other crucial aspects of Li-ion batteries. These include clarifying various aspects of a battery production plant in terms of production cost, examining the historical development of lithium-ion batteries across different dimensions, forecasting the most probable advancements in lithium-ion battery technology, conducting a detailed investigation into the projected costs of lithium-ion batteries, identifying potential challenges and obstacles in the future of lithium-ion batteries, and providing guidance on the proper allocation of budgets.