How emerging modes might change (sustainable) mobility patterns

Abstract

Mobility is currently undergoing a substantial transition, with emerging mobility modes holding the potential to reshape how individuals move within cities. Using a Norway-wide survey, we uncover latent subgroups of mobility patterns by examining current travel behaviors and (anticipated) future preferences across a range of alternatives, encompassing both conventional and emerging modes. The level of behavior-preference dissonance (i.e., non-alignment), various travel needs (e.g., safety, environment, cost), and sociodemographic variables are considered covariates. Results uncover seven distinct mobility classes ranging from current (un)sustainable use (behavior) to (un)sustainable future preferences. There is a noticeable preference for electric vehicles (EVs), while autonomous vehicles are less popular. Policymakers should navigate the transition to EVs with caution, ensuring that the integration of EVs complements rather than displaces active travel. In a class, despite indicating a desire for more (emerging) sustainable options, they paradoxically anticipate making more trips than other groups, potentially offsetting their environmental impact.