Scenario analysis for greenhouse gas emissions of the energy system at a zero emission neighbourhood, Campus Evenstad
Abstract
Med stigende globale opvarmningseffekter har der været en stigende indsats på global og national skala for klimabegrænsningsstrategier. På nationalt plan har Norge defineret klimamål, som sigter mod at reducere drivhusgasemissionerne med 50-55% i 2030 og 90-95% i 2050 sammenlignet med 1990-niveauerne. Dermed arbejder Norge mod at blive et lavemissionssamfund i 2050.
Forskningscenteret for nuludslips-områder i smarte byer (FME ZEN) fokuserer på forskning i, hvordan man dekarboniserer kvarterer. Målet ved forskningscenteret er i overensstemmelse med Norges klimamål. Et stort fokus for dekarbonisering af kvarterer er på lokal energiproduktion, energieffektivitet og energifleksibilitet. Disse mål tager hensyn til bygningerne, energisystemet og transport indenfor et kvarter.
FME ZEN bruger pilotprojekter på tværs af Norge som testområder for løsninger, der potentielt kan bidrage til etableringen af nuludslips-område. Campus Evenstad er et af de FME ZEN pilotprojekter og bruges som casestudie igennem denne analyse. Denne analyse fokuserer på potentialet for dekarbonisering af et energisystem i et nuludslips-område. De klimaændringspåvirkninger, der opstår fra hver teknologi, der i øjeblikket er i brug på Campus Evenstad, samt det kombinerede energisystem evalueres ved brug af livscyklusvurdering. Derudover udføres en scenarieanalyse for at vurdere effekterne af mulige ændringer i systemet mod at have nuludslip.
Analysen af det nuværende energisystemet på Campus Evenstad fandt den samlede klimapåvirkninger til at være 0,024 kg CO2-ækvivalenter per kWh og dermed 35,159 kg CO2-ækvivalenter om året. Hvor 74,9% af klimaændringspåvirkningerne var relateret til energisystemets operationelle energiforbrug. Gennem scenarieanalysen viste det sig af ved en ændring af energibidraget og effektiviteten på de teknologier der allerede er implementeret på Campus Evenstad, kunne klimaændringspåvirkningerne reduceres med 12%.
For at Campus Evenstad kan nå netto nuludslip fra energisystemet og dermed i nabolaget som helhed, er nye løsninger afgørende for yderligere undersøgelser. Som konkluderet i vurderingen vil den nuværende tilstand af energisystemet ikke kunne nå netto nul-emissioner. Men med kontinuerlige reduktioner og synergi i et kvarter, kan der tages skridt hen imod et vellykket nuludslips-område. Gennem udnyttelse af vedvarende energi og løsninger til reduktion af drivhusgasemissioner giver Campus Evenstad viden om, hvilke skridt der skal tages hen imod et lavemissionssamfund. At indføre nul-emissionskvarterer i Norge har ikke kun potentialet til at arbejde mod de norske klimamål, men også reducere energikilder i nabolande med større klimapåvirkning gennem eksport af norsk elektricitet. With global warming effects increasing there has been increasing efforts on global and national scales for climate mitigation strategies. On a national level, Norway has defined climate targets which aim to decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% in 2030 and 90-95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Hence Norway aims to become a low-emission society by 2050.
The Research Centre on Zero Emission Neighbourhoods in Smart Cities (FME ZEN), focuses on research for how to decarbonize neighbourhoods which is in line with Norway's climate targets. A large focus for decarbonizing neighbourhoods is on local energy generation energy efficiency and energy flexibility considering the buildings, energy system and mobility within the neighbourhood.
The FME ZEN uses pilot projects across Norway as test areas for solutions which potentially can contribute to the establishment of zero emission neighbourhoods. Campus Evenstad is one of FME ZEN pilot projects and used as a case study in this assessment. This assessment focuses on the potential for decarbonization of an energy system within a zero emission neighbourhood. The climate change impacts arising from each technology currently implemented at Campus Evenstad as well as the combined energy system are evaluated through the use of life cycle assessment. Additionally a scenario analysis is carried out in order to evaluate the effects of possible changes in the system.
The assessment found that the total climate change impacts arising from the current energy system was 0.024 kg CO2 per kWh and thereby 35,159 kg CO2-eq per year. Where 74.9% of the climate change impacts were related to the operational energy use of the energy system. Through the scenario analysis, the scenario with the most potential showed a decrease in climate change impacts by 12% by altering the energy contribution and efficiencies of the technologies currently implemented at Campus Evenstad. As the operational energy use was the largest burden on the system, solutions to reduce, especially the use of wood chips in the system are essential.
In order for Campus Evenstad to reach net zero emissions from the energy system and thereby in the neighbourhood as a whole, new solutions are essential for further investigation. As concluded in the assessment, the current state of the energy system will not be able to reach net zero emissions. However with continuous reductions and considering synergy within a neighbourhood, steps can be taken towards a successful zero emission neighbourhood. Through the utilization of renewable energies and solutions for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, Campus Evenstad is providing knowledge on steps to take towards a low-emission society. Introducing zero emission neighbourhoods into Norway, does not only have the potential to work towards the Norwegian climate targets but also reduce energy sources in neighbouring countries with higher climate impacts through the export of Norwegian electricity.