Vis enkel innførsel

dc.contributor.authorWu, Mengning
dc.contributor.authorStefanakos, Christos
dc.contributor.authorGao, Zhen
dc.contributor.authorHaver, Sverre Kristian
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-25T11:29:28Z
dc.date.available2019-11-25T11:29:28Z
dc.date.created2019-11-21T13:10:56Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.issn0029-8018
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2630244
dc.description.abstractShort-term predictions of wind and wave properties with a duration of 1–3 days are vital for decision-making during the execution of marine operations. One-step-ahead weather conditions can be accurately predicted via various methods. However, prediction over long horizons is challenging since multi-step-ahead prediction is typically faced with growing uncertainties. In this study, a hybrid method for predicting multi-step-ahead wind and wave conditions is proposed, which combines a decomposition technique and the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). First, the decomposition technique is applied to obtain stationary time series. Then, multi-step-ahead forecasting is conducted using ANFIS, in which three multi-step-ahead models (the M-1, M-N and M-1 slope models) are employed. To quantify the forecast uncertainty, the mean value and standard deviation of the error factor are calculated. The proposed method is evaluated by multi-step-ahead predictions within 24 h of wind and wave conditions at the North Sea center utilizing hourly time series of the mean wind speed Uw, the significant wave height Hs and the spectral peak period Tp. The results demonstrate that the forecast uncertainty increases with the prediction horizon, and a prediction range determined by the error factor provides a basic reference for the use of predicted environmental conditions for marine operations.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherElseviernb_NO
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titlePrediction of short-term wind and wave conditions for marine operations using a multi-step-ahead decomposition-ANFIS model and quantification of its uncertaintynb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionnb_NO
dc.source.volume188nb_NO
dc.source.journalOcean Engineeringnb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106300
dc.identifier.cristin1750480
dc.description.localcode© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).nb_NO
cristin.unitcode194,64,20,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for marin teknikk
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


Tilhørende fil(er)

Thumbnail

Denne innførselen finnes i følgende samling(er)

Vis enkel innførsel

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal
Med mindre annet er angitt, så er denne innførselen lisensiert som Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal