Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) in the 21st century over Serbia with the regional climate model (RCM) EBU-POM under two different forcing scenarios (A1B and A2). The validation of the model shows that the model reproduces the spatial variability, magnitude, and annual cycles of HDD and CDD for the reference period very well. According to both scenarios, a significant decrease of HDD and increase of CDD is expected all over Serbia. The simulations show a spatial heterogeneity in the potential changes, with the largest decrease of HDD in southern (mountainous) Serbia and largest increase of CDD in northern (lowland) Serbia. Results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the existing ratio between populations weighted regional mean CDD and HDD of 1:7.3 could be reduced to 1:2.3 according to the A1B scenario and 1:2.0 according to the A2 scenario. At the end of the 21st century cooling season length will be for about two times longer than at the reference period, while length of the heating season will be reduced for about 25%. According to both scenarios model projected an increase of the heating and cooling season temperature through 21st century by slightly less than 2 °C. Our study is the first research of future changes in HDD and CDD over Serbia based on regional climate modeling. Results of the research should help the policy of energy management and planning through provided indications of future spatial and seasonal changes of HDD and CDD within Serbia.