Investigating the effect of weather on punctuality of Norwegian railways

Abstract

The overall punctuality of railway system is of particular importance for customers in order to use trains as a means of public transport. Investigating the drivers of low punctuality of trains is an essential step for improving their punctuality. Severe weather conditions are assumed to be one of the drivers of delays and low punctuality of the transportation system. This paper addresses the extent to which the weather factors such as temperature, snow, precipitation and wind influence punctuality of trains on the Norwegian railways. The data for the study are collected from the passenger trains on the Nordland line. The study period is ten years, from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2016. Data are analyzed on a daily and weekly basis, and correlation and regression analyses are used to perform the statistical analysis. The results show that extreme cold weather during the winters is a crucial influencing factor contributing to delays and low punctuality. We also found that the weather variable that best explains variations in punctuality of passenger trains is snow depth.