Variation in trends of consumption based carbon accounts

Abstract

The UNFCCC requires the annual reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. These inventories focus on emissions within a territory, and do not capture the effect of emissions embodied in imports. Consumption based carbon accounting (CBCA) has been proposed as a complementary method to capture these emissions, and a number of global models have been developed to operationalise CBCA. However, discrepancies in country-level CBCA results occur, which can cause concern for the practical use of CBCA. Despite these quantitative difference in results, do they provide robust results when changes over time are investigated? Here we present results of all the major global models and normalise the model results by looking at changes over time relative to a common base year value. We give an analysis of the variability across the models, both before and after normalisation in order to give insights into variance at national and regional level. A dataset of harmonised results (based on means) and measures of dispersion is presented, providing a baseline dataset for CBCA validation and analysis.