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dc.contributor.authorEhlers, Ute
dc.contributor.authorRyeng, Eirin Olaussen
dc.contributor.authorMcCormack, Edward
dc.contributor.authorKhan, Faisal
dc.contributor.authorEhlers, Sören
dc.date.accessioned2019-06-11T08:29:14Z
dc.date.available2019-06-11T08:29:14Z
dc.date.created2018-10-17T15:55:41Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citationASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems. Part A: Civil Engineering. 2018, 4 (4), .nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn2376-7642
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2600415
dc.description.abstractEstimating the safety effects of emerging or future technology based on expert acquisitions is challenging because the accumulated judgment is at risk to be biased and imprecise. Therefore, this semiquantitative study is proposing and demonstrating an upgraded bowtie analysis for safety effect assessments that can be performed without the need for expert acquisition. While bowtie analysis is commonly used in, for example, process engineering, it is novel in road traffic safety. Four crash case studies are completed using bowtie analysis, letting the input parameters sequentially vary over the entire range of possible expert opinions. The results suggest that only proactive safety measures estimated to decrease the probability of specific crash risk factors to at least “very improbable” can perceptibly decrease crash probability. Further, the success probability of a reactive measure must be at least “moderately probable” to reduce the probability of a serious or fatal crash by half or more. This upgraded bowtie approach allows the identification of (1) the sensitivity of the probability of a crash and its consequences to expert judgment used in the bowtie model and (2) the necessary effectiveness of a chosen safety measure allowing adequate changes in the probability of a crash and its consequences.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherASCEnb_NO
dc.titleBowtie Analysis without Expert Acquisition for Safety Effect Assessments of Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systemsnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.description.versionacceptedVersionnb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber13nb_NO
dc.source.volume4nb_NO
dc.source.journalASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems. Part A: Civil Engineeringnb_NO
dc.source.issue4nb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1061/AJRUA6.0000986
dc.identifier.cristin1621163
dc.description.localcode© 2018. This is the authors' accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000986nb_NO
cristin.unitcode194,64,91,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for bygg- og miljøteknikk
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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