Global sensitivity analysis and repeated identification of a modular maneuvering model of a passenger ferry

Abstract

In the paper a modular manoeuvring model of the passenger ferry “Landegode” is built, validated and studied. Global sensitivity analysis based on the variance decomposition is performed to assess the sensitivity of the individual model coefficients on the simulation outcomes. It is found that uncertainty in both hull hydrodynamic coefficients and the steering and interaction coefficients can result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. The most influential coefficients are defined for the standard IMO manoeuvres. The possibility of identification of “true” values of the coefficients from full scale trials is studied. Such analysis would allow improving empirical predictions of the coefficients. It is found that different combinations of the model coefficients result in similar time-series. This indicates the presence of correlation between the coefficients. Thus, although the identified coefficients can be used for simulations of the ship manoeuvring, it is impossible to identify the single “true” value for each coefficient from these sea trials.