Investment Analysis with the EMPS Model with Emphasis on Transmission Capacity Increase to other Power Systems

Abstract

The EMPS model is a fundatmental model for optimizing and simulation of power systems with substantial amounts of hydro power, developed by SINTEF Energy Research. Recently SINTEF Energy Research developed investment functionality making it possible to run optimal investment analysis of thermal power, wind power and transmission capacities.The purpose of this thesis is to study and learn how to use both the EMPS and the newly developed investment model. The investment model is to be improved to use price segments instead of weekly average prices when calculating the profits and to implement the option to set a maximum capacity. Furthermore simplistic models of Germany and the Netherlands are to be constructed to be able to use the investment model to find the optimal transmission capacity between Norway and the Netherlands.The investment analysis resulted in an investment of 6000 MW in transmission capacity between Norway and the Netherlands. 6000 MW was the limit due to limitations in the grid from "Sørlandet" to the other parts of Norway. However the way the Netherlands are modelled do not take into account that the prices in the Netherlands also would change as a function of this capacity increase so it is fair to say that the invested capacity is too large. The investment analysis does show that an investment should be made as it is very profitable. For instance would an investment in the region of 1200 MW result in the full investment costs beeing payed back within 3 years of installation according to the investment analysis. The investment functionality is a program that is quick and easy to use. It provides the user a way to specify a lot of different investment alternatives. The program can be used to see the optimal investment in one or more investment alternatives and it also shows the impact they possibly have on each other. The program saves the user a lot of time as the user no longer has to manually add the investments into the EMPS model. There are however still a few errors that have to be fixed in the program and new features that could be added to improve the results, such as non-linear investment costs.