Automatic stock market trading based on Technical Analysis

Abstract

The theory of technical analysis suggests that future stock price developement can be foretold by analyzing historical price fluctuations and identifying repetitive patterns. A computerized system, able to produce trade recommendations based on different aspects of this theory, has been implemented. The system utilizes trading agents, trained using machine learning techniques, capable of producing unified buy and sell signals. It has been evaluated using actual trade data from the Oslo Børs stock exchange over the period 1999-2006. Compared to the simple strategy of buying and holding, some of the agents have proven to yield good results, both during years with extremely good stock market returns, as well as during times of recession. In spite of the positive performance, anomalous results do exist and call for cautionous use of the system’s recommendations. Combining them with fundamental analysis appears to be a safe approach to achieve succesful stock market trading.