A study on an iceberg drift trajectory

Abstract

Iceberg drift forecast is a challenging process. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in the driving forces — current, wind and waves — make accurate forecasts difficult. This article illustrates from a data set that even if the uncertainties in current, wind and waves are reduced the forecast using a dynamic iceberg models stays difficult, because of the sensitivity of the model to different parameters and inputs. Nevertheless, if the uncertainty of the current driving force on the iceberg is reduced by measuring the current at the iceberg location, it is possible under specific conditions to estimate the approximate iceberg shape. This iceberg shape geometry can be used directly in the dynamic iceberg model.