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dc.contributor.authorGoldsmith, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorButcher, Charles
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-20T08:25:49Z
dc.date.available2018-02-20T08:25:49Z
dc.date.created2017-11-16T08:14:35Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Genocide Research. 2017.nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn1462-3528
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2485809
dc.description.abstractWe assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, Genocide Watch and the Political Instability Task Force, we evaluate AFP accuracy. We compare AFP accuracy with that of forecasts from the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network. It is relatively rare in most areas of social science that researchers produce (and make public) future forecasts. It is rarer still to evaluate their accuracy once the future has arrived. AFP five-year forecasts are potentially important for genocide and politicide prevention, and have gained attention from policy makers and news media, but a systematic assessment of their accuracy has not been undertaken previously. Our evaluation of past forecast accuracy, with true-positive rates from thirty-three to fifty per cent, true-negative rates around ninety per cent, and area under the curve (AUC) statistics from .81 to .96, gives an indication of how much confidence should be placed in the 2016–20 forecasts.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisnb_NO
dc.titleGenocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020nb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.description.versionacceptedVersionnb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber18nb_NO
dc.source.journalJournal of Genocide Researchnb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/14623528.2017.1379631
dc.identifier.cristin1514642
dc.description.localcode© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Accepted Manuscript of the article, locked until 15 April 2019 due to copyright restrictions. The VOR published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Genocide Research, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/14623528.2017.1379631.nb_NO
cristin.unitcode194,67,25,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for sosiologi og statsvitenskap
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.qualitycode1


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