Norwegian national ship risk model

Abstract

In recent years, the Norwegian Maritime Authority (NMA) have focused increasingly on risk-informed decision-making. Similarly, the Norwegian Coastal Administration (NCA) is also extending their use of risk analysis. In 2013, a project was initiated to improve the risk models. The project aims at developing a National Ship Risk Model for ships in Norwegian waters. The Norwegian Research Council, NMA and NCA is funding the project. The paper presents the project, with focus on the risk models. The starting point is accident statistics from the NMA database. The process of further expanding the information basis and building a functional risk model is described. The modelling is based on use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The paper uses the grounding model as an example and discusses some of the challenges, including availability of data sources. Areas of application and types of decisions that can be supported by the model are also discussed.