Dynamic risk analysis for operational decision support

Abstract

Safe design of complex technical systems with a potential for major accidents is often supported by Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRA). The QRA has developed over several decades and the offshore oil and gas industry in Norway has put significant effort into applying QRA to support decisions in day-to-day operations. However, success has been limited so far. The MIRMAP project (Modelling of Instantaneous Risk for Major Accident Prevention) attempts to address this by comparing decisions in daily operations with decisions during design. Based on this, models that provide real-time risk information are developed. These risk models focus on daily operations where the design is fixed and the risk level is primarily driven by ongoing activities. This is different from traditional QRAs where the focus is on failure of technical systems and layout of systems. This paper describes the background and some examples and discusses practical implications and feasibility.