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dc.contributor.authorBotero, Carlos A.
dc.contributor.authorWeissing, Franjo J.
dc.contributor.authorWright, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorRubenstein, Dustin R.
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-01T11:24:43Z
dc.date.available2017-12-01T11:24:43Z
dc.date.created2014-11-05T11:47:40Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2015, 112 (1), 184-189.nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2468769
dc.description.abstractIn an era of rapid climate change, there is a pressing need to understand how organisms will cope with faster and less predictable variation in environmental conditions. Here we develop a unifying model that predicts evolutionary responses to environmentally driven fluctuating selection and use this theoretical framework to explore the potential consequences of altered environmental cycles. We first show that the parameter space determined by different combinations of predictability and timescale of environmental variation is partitioned into distinct regions where a single mode of response (reversible phenotypic plasticity, irreversible phenotypic plasticity, bet-hedging, or adaptive tracking) has a clear selective advantage over all others. We then demonstrate that, although significant environmental changes within these regions can be accommodated by evolution, most changes that involve transitions between regions result in rapid population collapse and often extinction. Thus, the boundaries between response mode regions in our model correspond to evolutionary tipping points, where even minor changes in environmental parameters can have dramatic and disproportionate consequences on population viability. Finally, we discuss how different life histories and genetic architectures may influence the location of tipping points in parameter space and the likelihood of extinction during such transitions. These insights can help identify and address some of the cryptic threats to natural populations that are likely to result from any natural or human-induced change in environmental conditions. They also demonstrate the potential value of evolutionary thinking in the study of global climate change.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesnb_NO
dc.titleEvolutionary tipping points in the capacity to adapt to environmental changenb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.description.versionacceptedVersionnb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber184-189nb_NO
dc.source.volume112nb_NO
dc.source.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americanb_NO
dc.source.issue1nb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1408589111
dc.identifier.cristin1170131
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 223257nb_NO
dc.description.localcode© 2014 The Authors. Published by National Academy of Sciences. This is the authors' accepted and refereed manuscript to the article.nb_NO
cristin.unitcode194,66,10,0
cristin.unitnameInstitutt for biologi
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpreprint
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.qualitycode2


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